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Navigating the path to exit the EU will require delicate
negotiations if we are to arrive at a satisfactory settlement
ANALYSIS
T
he mechanism by which
Britain will have to
navigate its exit from the
European Union is clear:
Article 50 of theTreaty
of the European Union, which was signed
at Maastricht in 1992, gives the process
for the withdrawal by any of the Union’s
members.What is still unclear, however,
is what the UK’s relationship with the
EUwill be following that exit – and as the
UK is likely to be the rst country to use
the provisions ofArticle 50, there
are no templates or precedents to help
negotiators, politicians or commentators
understand exactly what will happen after
the UK has left the departure lounge.
The referendum vote itself was not
enough to trigger exit from the EU: that
requires a letter from the UK government
to the president of the European Council,
currently DonaldTusk, invoking theArticle.
By Heather Connon
The treaty does not stipulate when that
must be done: indeed, the issue is the
subject of vigorous debate with some
EU politicians calling for an early
application,while many have argued that
it is in the UK’s best interests to delay
invokingArticle 50 until 2017.
The timing of the application is crucial
as, from that date, the UK will have just
two years to negotiate its exit – a very short
time, given the host of decisions that must
be made on contentious issues such as the
terms of trade with remaining members,
the nancial services‘passport’ which
allows our banks and insurers to operate
throughout the EU, the free movement of
people and whether we will continue to
make a nancial contribution to the EU.
Before leaving o ce, Prime Minister
David Cameron had established a Cabinet
committee to‘lead intensive civil service
work on the issues that will need to be
worked through to present options and
advice to a new prime minister and
Cabinet’, to bring together representatives
from the Cabinet, theTreasury and the
Foreign and Commonwealth O ce,
and discuss the issues with relevant
departments.One of Theresa May’s rst
decisions on becoming PMwas to appoint
David Davis to the new role of secretary of
state for exiting the EU.
On the European side, the negotiations
will be led by the European Commission
on a mandate from the European Council.
When negotiations are completed, the
agreement has to be rati ed by EU national
leaders under the quali ed majority voting
system, whereby votes are weighted
according to country size. Conclusion of
the negotiations requires the consent of the
European Parliament, which adds a further
unpredictable layer to when a deal will
nally be completed.
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THE INVESTOR