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THE INVESTOR
Proposed
43.6
%
tax bracket on
incomes above
$5m
a year
1
Pledged
an extra
£275
bn
on US
infrastructure
spending
2
clinton
versus
trump
a heavyweight battle that
matters for investors
By David Smith
ago was scarcely regarded as a serious
candidate, and known as a property
billionaire and realityTV star?We will soon
know; and after recent events we would be
wise not to rely too much on what the
polls are telling us. In a two-horse race,
after all, either one has a pretty good
chance of winning. So what should
investors make of it?
This has not been, it should be said,
a presidential election campaign that has
lifted the spirits.The enthusiasmwhich
greeted, for example, Barack Obama’s
first victory eight years ago has been
lacking.This may not be an entirely bad
thing. Presidents who take office carrying
with them great expectations can
disappoint, and some would say this
was Obama’s fate.
T
his has turned out to be
a year of surprises. In
Britain, not only did we see
a vote for Brexit that most
did not expect but the
shake-up at the top of politics – and the
end of the Cameron-Osborne supremacy
– happened in the blink of an eye. Now the
question is whether the year will be topped
by the biggest surprise of all.
Could DonaldTrump, who has said,
somewhat mysteriously,‘They call me
Mr Brexit,’defy the odds andmake it to the
Oval Office? Could theWhite House be
occupied by somebody who until a year
For the markets, the presidential race
has come down to the devil they think they
know, Clinton, and the one who offers
something of a leap into the dark:Trump.
In this respect, it has echoes of the UK’s
EU referendum. In general, in recent
months,markets have been reassured
when Clinton appears to be heading for
victory, and troubled whenTrump seems
to be forging ahead.Whatever else he
offers,Trump is associated with greater
uncertainty than his opponent.
Howmuch of an influence will the
election outcome really have on markets?
Capital Economics, in an analysis of US
stock-market performance in and around
previous presidential elections and based
on the S&P 500 Index, suggests that the
outlook is mixed. Since 1984 when, after
ANALYSIS
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